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Monday, May 19, 2014

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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

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Thursday, August 7, 2008

Aug 7 hourly with levels and targets S&P 500

Looks like the market is following the trend, 92 will be the key.

Levels are posted. Could we be getting the spring to take out the previosly posted open gap at 1335. We shall see.

For all the news that hit the market today the reaction was quite mild.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Aug 4 S&P 500 Daily

Thursday, July 24, 2008

July 24 S&P 500 hits bottom target

Here we are running back on our wonderful rally. We have a 34 point range today. Needless to say it was a very heavy trend.

Selllers were committed most of the afternoon. Dependant on the gap in the morning lets see how we can play it. if we gap down and shoot through 1240 then to the 20's we go.

I don't see where the support is going to come in as hedgies have loosed their positions in the financials again. Remember our memorandum from to days ago no shorting the banks unless you have an agreement borrowing those stocks.

Shall be exciting because it will be setting the pace for the following week.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

July 22 SP 500 Emini Daily

It was the 3.5 million volume spike that changed our direction. I mentioned this about two weeks ago that the turnaround would come after a volume sell off. The market makers are luring in a fresh batch of investors that will supposedly be buying the bargains. Watch out, don't fall in love with this rally, another investor spike will turn this around and the market makers will wipe this rally out.

Financials have had a little rally because things aren't as bad as they seem. It is bad......we will see in the next few weeks.

With all the support the financials are getting naked shorts out of the market on Banking stocks I expect a rally to previous swing high (1278) and then we will see who will be taking profits.

Will be a big day for xlf, rkh, bac, c, wfc, and wb.

After that who knows, we might see some consolidation or profit taking.

This is an example of a letter I recieved about shorting the big guys:

IMMEDIATE CHANGES TO CERTAIN US BANKING SECTOR CFDsOn 15 July 2008, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) issued an emergency order (“ SEC Order”) that was created to protect investors against the “naked” short selling of 19 US traded financial companies. The SEC Order will be effective from today Monday, 21 July 2008.The SEC Order means that no person may short sell any of the 19 listed CFDs or Stocks, unless they have borrowed, or arranged to borrow, the security prior to affecting the sale, and deliver the security on the settlement date. This means that that a client must have borrowed the security, or arranged to borrow it, prior to executing a short sale. As it is now, the SEC Order will be effective from Monday, 21 July 2008 through to 11:59 p.m. EDT on 29 July 2

Bank of America (BACnys) • Citigroup Inc. (Cnys) • Credit Suisse Group (CSnys) • Allianz SE (AZnys) • Goldman Sachs (GSnys) • JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPMnys) • Lehman Brothers (LEHnys) • Merrill Lynch (MERnys) • Morgan Stanley (MSnys)

INSTRUMENTS ALREADY SET AS NON-SHORTABLE (PRIOR TO THE SEC ORDER)• Barclays Plc (BCSnys) • Deutsche Bank AG (DBnys) • Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBSnys) • UBS AG (UBSnys) • Freddie Mac (FREnys) • Fannie Mae (FNMnys)

ADDITIONAL SECURITIES AFFECTED BY THE SEC ORDER BUT NOT OFFERED BY SAXO BANK• BNP Paribas • Daiwa Securities Group Inc. • HSBC Holdings Plc • Mizuho Financial
Best regards,Saxo Bank

Rally away boys.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

July 16 DJIA hourly bounce off of support

Up 279.74 2.52%
high 11,244.17 Low 10,918.33 Close 11,239.28

We had a little respite on the blood letting in the market. Don't fall in love with this rally as the blood letting will continue this week.

We stopped right on previous resistance before we hit the bottom and dependant on news we could settle around 11,100 and maybe retest the 10,820 area again. If we break through this support it doesn't look good for the markets.

Thursday, July 17, 2008
Before: AOS, AMFI, APH, BK, BAX, BBT, BLK, CHB, CIT, KO, CCE, CMA, CAL, COT (?), CY, DHR, FCS, FCF, FHN, F (?), GPC, HOG, HNI, HBAN, ITW, IIIN, IGT, IONA (?), JCI, JPM, KNL, MMR (?), MEG, MEI, MTG, NAFC, EDU, NXY, NOK, NVS, NUE, ORB, PNC, PPG, RS, SWY (?), SCHL (?), SON, SPWR, AMTD, TXT, UMPQ, UTX, USAK (?), WSO
During: HTLD (?)
After: ACTS (?), AMD, ATR, ARNA, AVCT, BRO, CLMS, COF, CIM (?), CBST, CYT, ESLR, EXAR (?), FBC, GILD, GOOG, IBM, ICUI, INFA, IUSA (?), LCRD (?), LEG, MER, MSFT, NVEC (?), PNFP (?), PMCS, RUSHA, SPP (?), SWKS, SYK, SRDX (?), SYMM (?), TPX, CHIP (?), WERN, WIT, ZION

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Market news for this week

Treasury 10-year note yields held near a one-month low amid a rise in crude oil and concern that mortgage-related losses at financial firms will widen. Oil advanced after a U.S. government report showed a bigger-than-forecast decline in inventories. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae fell after Fannie sold $3 billion in notes at higher yields than in past offerings. Many strategists believe that rising oil is going to affect consumption, it's going to affect earnings, so it's going to affect financial institutions' ability to recover.

Mortgage Bonds had a great day on Tuesday which allowed most lenders, to issue improved mid-day pricing. The rally has continued this morning, at least mildly, as the Fannie Mae 6.00% coupon is improved by 12 basis points. The 10 Year Treasury Note is currently yielding 3.88% ( this is good for 30 year Mortgages, because most are tied to this rate) while stocks are in the red by 30 points in early trading. Tomorrow we'll hear from the Labor Department with their weekly report on initial unemployment claims and that's about it for this week's economic calendar. I suspect now that Q2 is behind us, most traders will be taking their cues from corporate earnings reports during the next several days... GE will report on Friday and their numbers are generally considered a strong indicator for the economy.

Monday, June 30, 2008

European Central Bank raises rates ahead of Fed

Treasury 10-year notes rose after the National Association of Purchasing Management-Milwaukee manufacturing index dropped to its lowest since October 2001 and stocks of several financial firms fell.

Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. were among the firms that declined. The purchasing association's monthly index of regional manufacturing fell to 39, its fourth straight month below 50. A reading lower than 50 means the number of manufacturers that said business deteriorated was greater than the number saying it improved.
Treasuries earlier fell, extending the biggest quarterly decline since 2004, as inflation in the euro region rose to the highest in 16 years and oil advanced above $143 a barrel.
The retreat pushed 10-year yields up from a three-week low after a European Union report showed the rate of euro-region inflation climbed to 4 percent, bolstering the case for the European Central Bank to raise rates. Why are they ahead of us?

Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as $3.46, or 2.5 percent, to $143.67 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It reached $142.99 a barrel on June 27 after the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 2 percent. The market continues to struggle with what to do with the rise in oil.

Friday, June 27, 2008

How do you spell Recession?

Treasury two-year notes headed for the biggest five-day gain in three weeks after the Federal Reserve signaled it won't raise interest rates in coming months and the central bank's preferred inflation measure rose less than economists forecast.

Traders pushed two-year note yields to the lowest level in almost three weeks after U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 28- year low. Demand for the safety of government debt also rose as financial news network CNBC reported Merrill Lynch & Co. may post a second-quarter loss and write down the value of mortgage- related assets by as much as $5 billion, citing unidentified people.

Treasuries are still headed for their biggest quarterly loss in four years because of speculation in past weeks that rising energy prices would prompt the Fed to boost interest rates.
With the economy in a slump, and with prices rising rapidly, the Fed has found itself in a dilemma. Short-term rates already are low, and if the central bank cuts them more to stimulate economic growth, then prices could rise even faster and get out of control. If the Fed raises short-term rates, the result could be a recession (or a deeper recession, if the economy already is in one) and a delayed recovery. The economy cannot handle interest-rate increases. On the other hand, inflation pressure is going up. They're stuck between inflation and recession.

Monday, June 23, 2008

S&P 500 and the Economy. Financials wounded.

Looks like we are getting some blood letting in the financials today. ML, GS, and Citi announced layoffs that could be in the tens of thousands.

The Big three car makers, GM, Ford and Chrysler, have huge inventories of SUV's, Trucks and other gas guzzlers and have no inventory of economy cars. We could see one of these Bankrupt this year as all three have been downgraded by S&P to"credit watch negative."

Combine this with our Airlines declaring that the they will post losses of 18 Billion......this year.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

June 17 SP 500 daily looks like rolling over.

Goldman says that the credit crunch will peak in 2009 and US banks need at least 69 billion to cover......Hi Ho Bernanke.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Jobless claims up, single family housing down.

Jobless Claims continue high, U.S. Industrial Production (factories, mines, and utilities) was -0.7%, twice as weak as anticipated by economists, and capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, fell to 79.7 percent, the lowest since September 2005. Lastly yesterday we had the Philadelphia Fed Index come out at -15.6 in May, better than forecast, from -24.9 in April. ( Readings less than zero signal contraction.)

Today we had Housing Starts increase by 8.2%, but the increase is entirely due to multi-family homes, up by 36%. In contrast, single family starts fell by another 1.7%, albeit from an upward-revised base. This follows the large decline last month, when starts fell by 13.8%, and year-over-year starts are down 30.6% - no surprise given the inventory levels that are out there. Building Permits were up, and single family permits rose by 4.0%, the first rise in a while. After it we have the 10-yr sitting at 3.87%.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Fed cut, Europe to head into recession.

Treasuries rose as home prices fell the most on record and U.S. consumer confidence sank, bolstering speculation the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate tomorrow and keep it low for longer than anticipated. Government debt began gaining earlier after Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest bank, reported its first quarterly loss in five years, underscoring concern financial institutions worldwide face additional losses linked to the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

The credit crisis is far from being over. The market's telling you the Fed's going to 2 percent tomorrow and will say in the statement they'll be in a sit-and-watch mode. The weak-economy type talk is pro-bonds. Today's home-price report is a reminder that the economy remains weak and housing has been a disaster, and we probably haven't seen a bottom in it yet.
Other reports this week will show the economy hardly grew in the first quarter and employers cut jobs in April for a fourth month, surveys forecast. Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest bank, reported a quarterly loss after writing down the value of loans for leveraged buyouts and asset-backed securities by 2.7 billion euros ($4.2 billion). Europe is next, England will probably be kicking the recession off over there.

Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 84 percent chance the Fed will trim its target for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 2 percent tomorrow, compared with a 78 percent likelihood yesterday. The balance of the bets is for no change in borrowing costs. Traders also see a slimmer chance the Fed will start lifting rates later this year. The likelihood of an increase to 2.5 percent at Fed meetings in September, October and December declined today, futures show.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Longer term SP 500

It looks like two scenarios are forming:
1. 1424 target and then news for a correction

2. still consolidate in this range then a move up to a higher high maybe a 1.61 projection to 1492

I think the 1458 retrace is more likely, at which time this is the reaction high from 1252 and then a full capitulation of the bull and a move to 1108.

Also I can see this consolidating and then slight moves up until the elections. Next Feb would then kick off our next bear session.....

We shall see.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

ES Daily april 22 after hours

Looks like we have a channel.

Watch out for Rice prices

Watch out for Wheat prices

Oil to break $120

Banks and Financials need a higher market to keep the creditors at bay and to keep the expected 250,000 homes that haven't recieved their Notice of Defaults off their books.

Although we are seeing a slight uptick in home purchases compared to last month, the numbers of foreclosures are up 57% over last year and expecting bigger numbers in the months ahead.

Dollar also looks like it might get a bit of a break as the Bank of England is stepping in to help out with the Financial companies that have big losses in subprime. Holland, Belgium and England are also entering their first rounds of Foreclosures as overpriced properties have hit their highs and starting to plummet.

China's economy is the strongest it has ever been expecting the largest GDP % move ever......

Saturday, March 22, 2008

$75 billion in treasuries next week, any buyers?

In a sign investors' loss of confidence in credit markets is deepening, rates on three-month Treasury bills fell to the lowest level since 1954. The Fed will auction $75 billion in Treasuries next week in exchange for an expanded array of collateral to ease the logjam in lending. Treasury prices are at unsustainable levels and we've completely backed away from the market.
Fed policy makers on March 18 cut their target lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent, saying ``measures of inflation expectations have risen.'' The cut was smaller than the 1 percentage point traders had expected with 90 percent certainty before the meeting.

This week, a solid majority of panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. About one-quarter think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Treasury notes and Elevated inflation

Treasury 10-year notes rose, erasing half of yesterday's losses, on speculation the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive in cutting interest rates and focus on inflation. The difference in yields between two- and 10-year notes narrowed for a third day as traders pared bets the Fed will reduce the target lending rate by a half-percentage point at its April 30 meeting. Policy makers cut borrowing costs less than expected yesterday, saying inflation remained ``elevated.''

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show 70 percent odds the Fed will cut the 2.25 percent lending target by a half- percentage point at its meeting on April 30, compared with an 88 percent chance yesterday. The rest of the bets are for a quarter-point reduction.

Gold, used to hedge against rising prices, plunged the most since June 2006, falling 4.1 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude oil for April delivery fell $2.04, or 1.9 percent, to $107.38 a barrel. Treasuries tumbled yesterday, pushing up two-year note yields by the most since 2001, after the Fed cut the target lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent and said measures of inflation are ``elevated.''

Saturday, May 24, 2014

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