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Goldman and Morgan Stanley

The last two remaining Wall Street investment banks gave up their relatively non-regulated status and are now commercial banks as the Federal Reserve approved Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies yesterday. The reason? Morgan and Goldman can now permanently borrow from the government, since banks can borrow from the Federal Reserve at the discount window. Less risk, less profit, but the ability to buy retail banks and add stability. It is an interesting trade-off.

Nomura Securities is close to buying Lehman's Asian operations as Lehman continues to be divvied up.

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emini dow trading no more AIG on the DJIA

No more AIG on the DJIA. The Dow Jones removed IG from three benchmarks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average; its Dow Jones Global Titans 50 Index; and Dow Jones Insurance Titans 30 Index.

They mentioned it is because of "Financial Distress"

You think?

Put this together with the fire sales going on and where do you think the market is heading?

We have had alot of intervention. Do you think the intervention will change over time. Maybe letting individual companies fold rather than being taken over by the government.

We shall see.

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S&P 500 Emini futures support and resistance Sept. 5

S&P 500 emini futures trade

Trading the Money Maker Methodology for the S&P 500 Emini's.

Market gave a few really easy trades.

Took the last one Break even.

Can you see the trades?

S&P 500 Emini aug 27 daily chart

Housing and the Economy

I have been asked how the market looks for housing.

Consider this, summer is seasonally the time when most home purchases occur. This uptick from month to month is not a relavent figure. Sales normally increase in July and August. There are too many problems even with prime borrowers. This latest uptick is the worst.

Now, even "prime" quality borrowers are falling behind on payments at a record pace. The delinquency rate on prime mortgages hit 3.71% in the first quarter of this year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That's the highest since the MBA started splitting out subprime and prime borrowers back in 1998. The overall delinquency figures go much farther back — to 1979. They show the same thing: A record high delinquency rate of 6.35%.



Home prices are way down, but they show little signs of bottoming out just yet. How Many families can afford 48,000 a year to own a home in Orange County. Yes, intrest rates % are down but how much of a persons income will housing take, 50% or more, this is the fundamental problem. Figures from S&P/Case-Shiller reflect that home prices down 15.8% in May from the same month a year earlier. That's the largest drop on record. Prices fell in all 20 metropolitan areas the firm tracks. Las Vegas (-28.4%), Miami (-28.3%), Phoenix (-26.5%), and multiple markets in California (-24.6% in L.A., -23.2% in San Diego, and -22.9% in San Francisco) are leading the way.

Aug 22 S&P 500 Hourly chart with support and divergence

Have an open gap here from yesterday. Looks like sentiment will hold this market up a little bit.

LEH might be purchased by a Korean Development bank which will help the financials incredibly.

Sentiment is hopeful.

Don't fall in love with the upside on this market.

Aug 21 S&P 500 Emini futures Daily chart

Swing traders can grab the top of the channel on the daily for a bear flag that is forming, probably kick off this next week. There apperars to be room for another quick and volital bull rally, then the "oh no, what did I buy?" hedge funders and MM's will dump and short sell their own stock.

Looking for this especially in financials. They can confuse the hell out of the pundits for a big set up.

Expecting a move up from here bouncing off of support. Staying in this channel.

Aug 20 2008 Emini S&P 500 futures ES hourly close

Stayed in the range. Tomorrow could see it close the gap.

Aug 19 2008 Emini S&P 500 futures ES hourly

Trend line busted fell through support, if we break support here we are headed for the open gap at 49.75.

Expecting some big support here.

Lets see where it goes.

Aug 18 2008 Emini S&P 500 futures ES hourly

Still have three open gaps. Supporting green lines, showing a little strength, we could see it bounce up take out the target and then make a run for new lows.

The 200 ema could add a bit of support to price.

Watch out for low volume pushes that move rapidly. Not many big players putting on positoins. Nothing over a thousand today.

Little bit of news tomorrow. No big suprises except for a banking news.

Aug 15 Daily SP 500 Emini Futures

Aug 15 Daily Chart SP500 Emini

Aug 14 S&P 500 and economy

The Labor Department said that Jobless Claims fell by 10,000 last week to 450k, but remained at levels that show strained labor markets. This is above the 432k that had been forecast although it was the first time that weekly claims fell since early July. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims climbed to 440,500 last week from 421,000 the week before - the highest reading in more than six years.

We also had July's Consumer Price Index, rising at twice the rate expected and showing the fastest rate of year-over-year growth in 17-1/2 years! The CPI was +.8% in July after being +1.1% in June. Prices were up 5.6 percent from a year ago, the sharpest year-over-year rise since 5.7 percent in January 1991. That was also well above the 5.1 percent increase that economists had forecast. The core CPI (ex-food & energy) still was +0.3% in July, above forecasts. Energy prices are coming down, and there is no meaningful probability of Fed rate hikes until things stabilize. After this news, the 10-yr continues to hover around 3.90% and mortgages are unchanged so far.