Goldman and Morgan Stanley

The last two remaining Wall Street investment banks gave up their relatively non-regulated status and are now commercial banks as the Federal Reserve approved Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies yesterday. The reason? Morgan and Goldman can now permanently borrow from the government, since banks can borrow from the Federal Reserve at the discount window. Less risk, less profit, but the ability to buy retail banks and add stability. It is an interesting trade-off.

Nomura Securities is close to buying Lehman's Asian operations as Lehman continues to be divvied up.

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Central banks, the fed and more money into the pool

Overnight Central Banks around the world, including our Federal Reserve, almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to $247 billion in a coordinated bid to ease the crisis.

The Fed increased the amount of dollars that the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, Canada, the Bank of Japan and other counterparts can offer from $67 billion ``to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.'' Investors stockpiled money on concern more financial institutions would fail after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the problems with AIG. The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt climbed to a record yesterday.

Watch yourelf out there.
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Sept. 3 S&P 500 emini futures daily chart after hours

We are very propped up the Fed gave us a very light reading on the market. There is so much going on from Credit, inability of lenders to lend because of underwriting and we are going into the worst part of the Real Estate Market sales season.

Oil is loosing its catalyst of market movement, we shall see some large energy funds close out and give their investors a little money bank.

We are in a very tight trade channel, and when it successfully breaks out it we could see some very violent moves.

Oil looks like it is at a low so we shall see.

Dollar is also holding its strength.

S&P 500 Emini aug 27 daily chart

Aug 22 S&P 500 Hourly chart with support and divergence

Have an open gap here from yesterday. Looks like sentiment will hold this market up a little bit.

LEH might be purchased by a Korean Development bank which will help the financials incredibly.

Sentiment is hopeful.

Don't fall in love with the upside on this market.

Aug 20 2008 Emini S&P 500 futures ES hourly close

Stayed in the range. Tomorrow could see it close the gap.

Fannie and Freddie moving market, bonds, oil

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbled in New York trading to the lowest valuations since at least 1990 as speculation increased that the U.S. Treasury will bail out the mortgage-finance companies, wiping out shareholders. Fannie, based in Washington, slumped as much as 20 percent and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie dropped as much as 32 percent, extending its losses to 90 percent for the year. Rising borrowing costs and evidence that demand for their debt was waning last month led Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to seek the authority to pump unlimited amounts of capital in Fannie and Freddie in an emergency. Freddie paid its highest yields on record in a debt sale yesterday amid concern that credit losses are depleting the capital of the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies.

Fannie and Freddie have $223 billion of bonds due by the end of the quarter and their success in rolling over that debt may determine whether they can avoid a federal bailout. Fannie has about $120 billion of debt maturing through Sept. 30, while Freddie has $103 billion.
Treasuries rose after a report that Freddie Mac will meet with government officials, fueling concern a takeover of the mortgage-finance provider is imminent and leading investors to the safety of government debt.

Oil prices began creeping upward this morning, but a government report that reflected a surprising increase in crude supply stalled the oil rally and allowed The Dow to climb as much as 80 points before falling back. Treasuries are steady with the 10 Year yielding 3.80%.

Aug 18 2008 Emini S&P 500 futures ES hourly

Still have three open gaps. Supporting green lines, showing a little strength, we could see it bounce up take out the target and then make a run for new lows.

The 200 ema could add a bit of support to price.

Watch out for low volume pushes that move rapidly. Not many big players putting on positoins. Nothing over a thousand today.

Little bit of news tomorrow. No big suprises except for a banking news.

Aug 12 Daily chart SP 500 emini futures

S&P 500 has followed the support trend line in this move up towards the 1322.5 open gap and the 50% retracement.

Today's close will be the key for this continuation of the midterm retracement. Below 1280 and we will probably be heading back to the lows.

Aug 4 S&P 500 5 min chart

Quite a choppy day we had on the S&P 500, a few breakouts.

FOMC meeting tomorrow so could be a slow morning as the traders wait for no announcement.

Alot is going on in Europe, they are showing signs of inflation and their un official unemployment is running in to the 10's+.

SP 500 daily June 23 support being challenged

Could be attempting to break support here, on green line. Volume is really low. Lot of financial information being taken on in the market.

See below.

June 22 SP 500 gap up

Gap up, we have quite a bit of news coming out. Seems sentiment is confused again and sees this as a buying opportunity. Watch oil, could be a jump up today as Nigeria had a little turmoil over the weekend.

News might really move us today.

SP 500 daily May 12 after hours

we have a few areas of confluence on the horizon. It looks like we might test a little higher to the 24 to 27 range and dependant on volume we could see a push to 1441. This would hit the 200 day moving average and also be a fibonacci retracement.

We shall see. If we get a lower high from here we will test the next level down.

Rice famine on the horizon.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abXcOZzew7GI&refer=home

Rice, the worlds staple, is now going through a hoarding phase in the market. The fear of a short supply in the world market has countries as well as individuals scrambling.

If Thai land curbs its sales of rice we could see price double again. It is unfortunate that this hoarding actually does cause the market to react with high prices which knock out some countries like Bangladesh from the purchasing market. This is what will turn the "starvation curve" around and put more at risk-below poverty line families closer to starvation. This is the same pattern seen in previous rice famines........

Bond prices down

Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress last week that the Fed's actions ``will help to promote growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity.''

The bond market is looking much like it did in December, when yields rose as much as 0.27 percentage point to 3.91 percent on average. The increase followed the Fed's Dec. 11 decision to cut its target for overnight loans between banks to 4.25 percent.

The slump in Treasuries since the bailout of Bear Stearns was interrupted on April 4 after the Labor Department said company payrolls contracted by the most in five years during March. At the same time, wages grew at the slowest pace since 2005, bolstering speculation that inflation will decline as Bernanke said it would.

The April 4 rally wasn't enough to keep Treasuries from declining last week. Two-year note yields climbed 17 basis points to 1.81 percent, and are up from 1.24 percent on March 17, the lowest since July 2003.

SP 500 daily March 19

After the Fed. Market has been hit with Hammer of money.

Oil will fall a bit, gold will retrace down and we will consolidate here while the bear re assess where the next financial crisis will occur.

Bank One, Discover, and American Express are writing off debt at a faster rate than ever before. Consumer credit is going to take it on the head.

Gold hit $1,033, Oil $112 Dollar dives

The Fed announced two initiatives designed to bolster market liquidity and promote orderly market functioning, and approved the JP Morgan - Bear Stearns deal. First, they authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to create a lending facility to improve the ability of primary dealers to provide financing to participants in securitization markets.

It is available today, and will be in place for at least six months and may be extended as conditions warrant. Credit extended to primary dealers under this facility may be collateralized by a broad range of investment-grade debt securities.

Second, the Federal Reserve Board decreased the primary credit rate ("Discount Rate") from 3.5% to 3.25%. Lastly, the Board also approved the financing arrangement announced by JPMorgan Chase and Bear Stearns where Bear is being purchased for 1% of its value only 16 days ago! Tomorrow, the FOMC will meet, and obviously the odds that the Fed will cut the Fed Funds rate by 1.0% have increased. Mortgage prices are really a mixed bag ("where should they be priced?") with the 10-yr down to 3.41% currently.